Hypotheses · control · IQ134-control-poor-technique-average-yard

IQ134: control poor technique average yard

KILLEDfailed the vaultredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.985 on 1956 (GB 1.072, IRE 0.687), p 0.5763 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

Starts the thread “IQ134: control poor technique average yard” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 2

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL 3: technique below the median last time, yard score in the middle third.

The rule

dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_c_poor_average_yard = 1

Reads: dv_now, dv_c_poor_average_yard

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): 5512d97199319e39acaa41aeb60b1f82f4c6b823846f02b5550c64b227626d3c
Frozen: 14 Oct, 01:00; Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Broad: dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_c_poor_average_yard = 1
Holdout: { "direction": "positive", "frozen_in": "research/experiments/raceiq/iq_batch_10", "frozen_on": "2026-10-14", "id": "IQ134-control-poor-technique-average-yard", "rule": "dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_c_poor_average_yard = 1" }
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 699
A/E: 0.92; winners vs the prices
SP return: -23.1%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +97.4%; 699 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 5.2%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-220–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets: 1,956; 14 Oct, 13:00
A/E: 0.98; p = 0.58
BH threshold then: 0.0034; over every vault test so far
Outcome: Failed; from the archive

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ134-control-poor-technique-average-yard Vault → KILLEDfailed the vault import: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.985 on 1956 (GB 1.072, IRE 0.687), p 0.5763 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ134-control-poor-technique-average-yard Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ134-control-poor-technique-average-yard Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ134-control-poor-technique-average-yard (discovery year (reference)): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ134-control-poor-technique-average-yard (Ireland): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ134-control-poor-technique-average-yard (Britain): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ134-control-poor-technique-average-yard (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ134-control-poor-technique-average-yard (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ134-control-poor-technique-average-yard: IQ134: control poor technique average yard (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Failed the vault.