IQ135: control poor technique other top yards

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ135: control poor technique other top yards KILLED red

   because CONTROL 4: technique below the median last time, yard score in the top third, not Harry Derham.

   dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_c_poor_top_yard_not_derham = 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.98 on 904 bets, by period 1.07 · 0.76. info

   Betfair SP return -39.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.76 to 1.07. Zone: all. On IQ135: control poor technique other top yards

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half6541.07

   Later half2500.76

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 0.98 on 1,755 bets, by period 0.98. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ135: control poor technique other top yards

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1,7550.98

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 0.95 on 1,125 bets, by period 0.95. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ135: control poor technique other top yards

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1,1250.95

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 1.05 on 630 bets, by period 1.05. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ135: control poor technique other top yards

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago6301.05

   Last year0–

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 1.04 on 1,344 bets, by period 1.04. info

   Betfair SP return -21.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ135: control poor technique other top yards

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year1,3441.04

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ135: control poor technique other top yards Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

8. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ135: control poor technique other top yards Vault → KILLEDfailed the vaultimport: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.978 on 1755 (GB 0.95, IRE 1.047), p 0.628 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests