Hypotheses · control · IQ135-control-poor-technique-other-top-yards

IQ135: control poor technique other top yards

KILLEDfailed the vaultredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.978 on 1755 (GB 0.95, IRE 1.047), p 0.628 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

Starts the thread “IQ135: control poor technique other top yards” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 2

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL 4: technique below the median last time, yard score in the top third, not Harry Derham.

The rule

dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_c_poor_top_yard_not_derham = 1

Reads: dv_now, dv_c_poor_top_yard_not_derham

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): 7069457011f44886625b2325c12fffd3f16fcb8fe249956e7230c4eeb03f26e6
Frozen: 14 Oct, 01:00; Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Broad: dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_c_poor_top_yard_not_derham = 1
Holdout: { "direction": "positive", "frozen_in": "research/experiments/raceiq/iq_batch_10", "frozen_on": "2026-10-14", "id": "IQ135-control-poor-technique-other-top-yards", "rule": "dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_c_poor_top_yard_not_derham = 1" }
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 1,344
A/E: 1.04; winners vs the prices
SP return: -41.2%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -21.8%; 1,344 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 9.8%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-220–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets: 1,755; 14 Oct, 13:00
A/E: 0.98; p = 0.63
BH threshold then: 0.0034; over every vault test so far
Outcome: Failed; from the archive

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ135-control-poor-technique-other-top-yards Vault → KILLEDfailed the vault import: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.978 on 1755 (GB 0.95, IRE 1.047), p 0.628 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ135-control-poor-technique-other-top-yards Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ135-control-poor-technique-other-top-yards Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ135-control-poor-technique-other-top-yards (discovery year (reference)): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ135-control-poor-technique-other-top-yards (Ireland): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ135-control-poor-technique-other-top-yards (Britain): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ135-control-poor-technique-other-top-yards (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ135-control-poor-technique-other-top-yards (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ135-control-poor-technique-other-top-yards: IQ135: control poor technique other top yards (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Failed the vault.