Threads · control · IQ136-control-all-eligible

IQ136: control all eligible

Hypotheses: 1 (0 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Vault
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.982 on 11646 (GB 0.987, IRE 0.967), p 0.7477 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ136: control all eligible KILLED red
because CONTROL 5: every eligible runner making hurdle start 2-4.
```
dv_now IS NOT NULL
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.02 on 6,510 bets, by period 1.04 · 0.94. info
Betfair SP return -2.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.04. Zone: all. On IQ136: control all eligible
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half4,8551.04
Later half1,6550.94
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 0.98 on 11,646 bets, by period 0.98. info
Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ136: control all eligible
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-220–
2023 to a year ago11,6460.98
Last year0–
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Britain: A/E 0.99 on 7,610 bets, by period 0.99. info
Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ136: control all eligible
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-220–
2023 to a year ago7,6100.99
Last year0–
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Ireland: A/E 0.97 on 4,036 bets, by period 0.97. info
Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ136: control all eligible
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-220–
2023 to a year ago4,0360.97
Last year0–
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
discovery year (reference): A/E 1.00 on 7,075 bets, by period 1.00. info
Betfair SP return -5.8%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ136: control all eligible
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-220–
2023 to a year ago0–
Last year7,0751.00
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
IQ136: control all eligible Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
IQ136: control all eligible Vault → KILLEDfailed the vaultimport: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.982 on 11646 (GB 0.987, IRE 0.967), p 0.7477 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

Where it started

CONTROL 5: every eligible runner making hurdle start 2-4.

IQ136: control all eligible

Hypotheses

1 (0 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Vault

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.982 on 11646 (GB 0.987, IRE 0.967), p 0.7477 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ136: control all eligible KILLED red
because CONTROL 5: every eligible runner making hurdle start 2-4.
```
dv_now IS NOT NULL
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.02 on 6,510 bets, by period 1.04 · 0.94. info
Betfair SP return -2.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.04. Zone: all. On IQ136: control all eligible
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half4,8551.04
Later half1,6550.94
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 0.98 on 11,646 bets, by period 0.98. info
Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ136: control all eligible
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-220–
2023 to a year ago11,6460.98
Last year0–
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Britain: A/E 0.99 on 7,610 bets, by period 0.99. info
Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ136: control all eligible
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-220–
2023 to a year ago7,6100.99
Last year0–
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Ireland: A/E 0.97 on 4,036 bets, by period 0.97. info
Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ136: control all eligible
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-220–
2023 to a year ago4,0360.97
Last year0–
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
discovery year (reference): A/E 1.00 on 7,075 bets, by period 1.00. info
Betfair SP return -5.8%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ136: control all eligible
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-220–
2023 to a year ago0–
Last year7,0751.00
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
IQ136: control all eligible Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
IQ136: control all eligible Vault → KILLEDfailed the vaultimport: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.982 on 11646 (GB 0.987, IRE 0.967), p 0.7477 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

Where it started

CONTROL 5: every eligible runner making hurdle start 2-4.