Hypotheses · control · IQ136-control-all-eligible
IQ136: control all eligible
holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.982 on 11646 (GB 0.987, IRE 0.967), p 0.7477 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
Starts the thread “IQ136: control all eligible” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 2
Mechanism and rationale
CONTROL 5: every eligible runner making hurdle start 2-4.
The rule
dv_now IS NOT NULL
Reads: dv_now
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- a5733b5c8110150737f0dbf546b34e31e758d49a13f5e6138396f85403557852
- Frozen
- 14 Oct, 01:00
- Nothing in the definition can change after this.
- Broad
dv_now IS NOT NULL
- Holdout
{ "direction": "positive", "frozen_in": "research/experiments/raceiq/iq_batch_10", "frozen_on": "2026-10-14", "id": "IQ136-control-all-eligible", "rule": "dv_now IS NOT NULL" }- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 7,075
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -39.4%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -5.8%
- 7,075 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 11.0%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
- Bets
- 11,646
- 14 Oct, 13:00
- A/E
- 0.98
- p = 0.75
- BH threshold then
- 0.0034
- over every vault test so far
- Outcome
- Failed
- from the archive
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
IQ136-control-all-eligible Vault → KILLEDfailed the vault import: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.982 on 11646 (GB 0.987, IRE 0.967), p 0.7477 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
· importer
IQ136-control-all-eligible Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
· importer
IQ136-control-all-eligible Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
· importer
import result for IQ136-control-all-eligible (discovery year (reference)): info
· importer
import result for IQ136-control-all-eligible (Ireland): info
· importer
import result for IQ136-control-all-eligible (Britain): info
· importer
import result for IQ136-control-all-eligible (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
· importer
import result for IQ136-control-all-eligible (broad): info
· importer
New idea IQ136-control-all-eligible: IQ136: control all eligible (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Failed the vault.