IQ14: reliable chaser by jump index

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ14: reliable chaser by jump index KILLED red

   because Chase: Jump Index has averaged in the top 35% of its fields over its last two or three chases. A reliable jumper, worth most where the fences punish mistakes.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_jump_index_pct_avg3 >= 0.65

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.02 on 2,025 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.03. info

   Betfair SP return +3.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.01). Zone: all. On IQ14: reliable chaser by jump index

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half8901.02

   Later half1,1351.03

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ14: reliable chaser by jump index Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 1.024 on 2025 bets