IQ14: reliable chaser by jump index

Mechanism and rationale

Chase: Jump Index has averaged in the top 35% of its fields over its last two or three chases. A reliable jumper, worth most where the fences punish mistakes.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_jump_index_pct_avg3 >= 0.65

Reads: race_type, s_n3, s_jump_index_pct_avg3

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_jump_index_pct_avg3 >= 0.65

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

2,025

A/E

1.02

winners vs the prices

SP return

-13.6%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+3.9%

2,011 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 16.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ14-reliable-chaser-by-jump-index Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 1.024 on 2025 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ14-reliable-chaser-by-jump-index (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ14-reliable-chaser-by-jump-index: IQ14: reliable chaser by jump index (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.