Threads · overlay · IQ140a-wide-trip-with-figures
IQ140a: wide trip with figures
- Hypotheses
- 21 (14 alive)
- Depth
- 4
- Best rung
- Live
- Open questions
- 9
- Last activity
- 17 Oct, 12:36
Where it stands: forward A/E 0.0 on 0 bets, SP ROI None%, BSP ROI None% (p None)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ140a: wide trip with figures PROMISING green
because CONTROL: wide trip, beaten under five, runners whose last run has the figure.
(last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4, 0)) AND l_top_speed_pct IS NOT NULLmade by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.27 on 1,080 bets, by period 1.15 · 1.41.
Where it started
CONTROL: wide trip, beaten under five, runners whose last run has the figure.