IQ140a: wide trip with figures

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: wide trip, beaten under five, runners whose last run has the figure.

The rule

(last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4, 0)) AND l_top_speed_pct IS NOT NULL

Reads: last_raced_wide, last_position, last_beaten_lengths, last_slow_start, last_run_style, last_race_tilt, last_field_size, l_top_speed_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

(last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4, 0)) AND l_top_speed_pct IS NOT NULL

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,080

A/E

1.27

winners vs the prices

SP return

+19.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+53.6%

1,078 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 19.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

Agent runs

• investigator v1ok · 1m 1s · 16 Oct, 11:13

  Output (schema-checked)

  {
    "reflection": "The chain is consistent. The broad wide-trip rule (raced wide, beaten 5 lengths or less, not a slow starter, not a flattered closer) was GREEN without figures in H50 (A/E 1.249 on 1114 bets). It held when limited to runners with RaceiQ figures in IQ140a (A/E 1.272 on 1080 bets), and both halves agreed (1.15 on 533, 1.41 on 547). At bookmaker SP it returned +19.3% ROI, and +53.6% at BSP. The figure split points to the mechanism. Wide runners whose top speed was in the upper half of the field did best (IQ140b, 1.348 on 731). Wide runners with slower top speeds still beat the market (IQ140c, 1.085 on 349). Runners that were not wide sat at the market whatever their top speed (IQ150c 1.01 on 15643; IQ150d 0.967 on 9518). So the edge comes from the wide trip itself, and the speed figure only sharpens it. This fits 'figures pay where they disagree with what the result showed': post-to-post times and the bare beaten distance both undersell a horse that covered extra ground. What we have not tested is the physical cause: how much ground the horse actually lost. Track shape, today's draw and why it went wide (forced out, or steered wide for better ground) should change the size of the edge if the cause is real. The wide-trip column only starts in November 2025, so every test here covers about one year and has two halves, not three periods.",
    "answers": [],
    "questions": [
      {
        "question": "Is the wide-trip edge bigger when last time's track had tight bends, where going wide costs the most ground?",
        "rationale": "If the cause is extra ground covered, the cost grows with how tight and frequent the bends are, so the edge should scale with last_track_sharpness and fall on galloping or straight tracks. Columns: last_track_sharpness, last_track_character, last_raced_wide, last_beaten_lengths. If the edge is flat across track shapes, the cause is something else, such as a property of the horses tagged 'wide'.",
        "observation_ids": [
          "O-943a9f88"
        ],
        "priority": 0.6
      },
      {
        "question": "In jump races on soft or heavy ground, is a wide trip a deliberate route to better ground, and does the edge shrink there?",
        "rationale": "Jumps jockeys often go wide on purpose for fresher ground, so 'raced wide' there may cost little or nothing. That would make the tag a rival explanation for part of the population. Columns: last_going_group, last_race_type, last_raced_wide, race_type. If the edge is the same on soft, the ground-lost reading is not being diluted.",
        "observation_ids": [
          "O-943a9f88"
        ],
        "priority": 0.45
      },
      {
        "question": "On the Flat, does a low draw today (unlikely to be forced wide again) carry more of the edge than a high draw?",
        "rationale": "The edge is that a past disadvantage won't repeat. A horse drawn wide again may lose the same ground and justify its price. Columns: draw, field_size, race_type, track_draw_bias, last_raced_wide.",
        "observation_ids": [
          "O-943a9f88"
        ],
        "priority": 0.35
      }
    ],
    "hypotheses": [
      {
        "title": "Wide trip at a sharp track last time costs more ground, so it pays more",
        "family": "overlay",
        "operator": "test-mechanism",
        "question_id": null,
        "new_question": 0,
        "parent_id": "IQ140a-wide-trip-with-figures",
        "reasoning": {
          "observation_ids": [
            "O-943a9f88"
          ],
          "question": "Is the wide-trip edge bigger when last time's track had tight bends?",
          "mechanism": "A horse forced wide round a bend covers extra distance. On a tight, sharp track the bends are tighter and more frequent for the trip, so it loses more ground than on a galloping track with long straights. A close finish after more lost ground means more hidden ability.",
          "market_miss": "The form book records a beaten distance and maybe 'wide' in the comment, but not how much ground the track shape cost. Punters read 'beaten 3 lengths' the same at Chester and Newmarket.",
          "prediction": {
            "direction": "positive",
            "size": "A/E 1.30 to 1.45 on 300+ bets, above the 1.27 for the whole wide-trip population",
            "falsified_if": "A/E at or below the galloping-track wide runners (last_track_sharpness = 0), or below 1.15, or the two halves disagree"
          },
          "rule_sketch": "last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND last_track_sharpness >= 2"
        },
        "confounders": [
          "sharp tracks have smaller fields, so check the field-size-corrected yardstick",
          "all-weather tracks (Chester-like ovals) and Flat dominate sharp tracks",
          "course concentration: a few tracks may supply most bets"
        ],
        "expected_survival": 0.4
      },
      {
        "title": "Wide on soft ground over jumps may be a chosen route, not lost ground",
        "family": "overlay",
        "operator": "rival-explanation",
        "question_id": null,
        "new_question": 1,
        "parent_id": "IQ140a-wide-trip-with-figures",
        "reasoning": {
          "observation_ids": [
            "O-943a9f88"
          ],
          "question": "In jump races on soft or heavy ground, is a wide trip a deliberate route to better ground, so the edge shrinks there?",
          "mechanism": "Over jumps on soft or heavy ground, jockeys often steer wide on purpose for fresher ground. That horse gave up little or nothing, so the result is a fair reflection and there is nothing hidden to bet on.",
          "market_miss": "If the rival is right there is no market miss here: the price is fair and these runners should be near 1.00, diluting the system. If the edge holds here too, the ground-lost reading is confirmed.",
          "prediction": {
            "direction": "negative",
            "size": "A/E 0.95 to 1.05 on 150+ bets, clearly below the 1.27 overall",
            "falsified_if": "A/E 1.20 or higher on this subset, which would mean deliberate wide routes still undersell the horse"
          },
          "rule_sketch": "last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND last_race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND last_going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy')"
        },
        "confounders": [
          "winter jumps seasonality",
          "fewer bets since the wide tag starts November 2025",
          "soft-ground stayers' price bands"
        ],
        "expected_survival": 0.35
      },
      {
        "title": "Wide last time, drawn low today on the Flat",
        "family": "overlay",
        "operator": "sharpen",
        "question_id": null,
        "new_question": 2,
        "parent_id": "IQ140a-wide-trip-with-figures",
        "reasoning": {
          "observation_ids": [
            "O-943a9f88"
          ],
          "question": "Does a low draw today, where the horse is unlikely to be forced wide again, carry more of the edge?",
          "mechanism": "The value is that the ground lost last time will not repeat. From a low (inside) stall the horse can save ground today. From a wide stall it may lose the same ground again and run to its bare form.",
          "market_miss": "The market prices the draw in general, but not as a release from a disadvantage the form figures hide. The horse's last run looks ordinary, and nothing in the form flags the draw today as a change.",
          "prediction": {
            "direction": "positive",
            "size": "A/E 1.30+ on 200+ bets, above the high-draw wide runners",
            "falsified_if": "A/E below 1.15, or no better than wide runners drawn in the top half of the field"
          },
          "rule_sketch": "race_type = 'Flat' AND last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND draw * 2 <= field_size"
        },
        "confounders": [
          "course draw bias runs high at some tracks (track_draw_bias)",
          "straight-course races have no bends",
          "field size"
        ],
        "expected_survival": 0.3
      }
    ],
    "findings": [
      {
        "statement": "The wide-trip edge held when limited to runners with RaceiQ figures (A/E 1.27 on 1080 bets, halves 1.15 and 1.41) and pays at bookmaker SP (+19% ROI), so it is a selection edge, not only a price edge.",
        "kind": "holds",
        "observation_ids": [
          "O-943a9f88"
        ]
      },
      {
        "statement": "The wide-trip edge is limited by data: last_raced_wide exists only from November 2025, so each test has about one year in two halves, not three periods.",
        "kind": "data",
        "observation_ids": [
          "O-943a9f88"
        ]
      }
    ]
  }

Timeline

1. hypothesis note IQ140a-wide-trip-with-figures

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. hypothesis note IQ140a-wide-trip-with-figures

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. IQ140a-wide-trip-with-figures Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.272 on 1080 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ140a-wide-trip-with-figures (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea IQ140a-wide-trip-with-figures: IQ140a: wide trip with figures (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.