IQ141a: wide early recovered with figures

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ141a: wide early recovered with figures PROMISING green

   because CONTROL: wide early and recovered, runners whose last run has the figure.

   (race_type = 'Flat' AND last_early_setback = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND l_gained_mid IS NOT NULL

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.45 on 253 bets, by period 1.33 · 1.54. info

   Betfair SP return +38.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.21). Zone: all. On IQ141a: wide early recovered with figures

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1071.33

   Later half1461.54

3. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ141a: wide early recovered with figures Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.446 on 253 bets

4. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ141a-wide-early-recovered-with-figures (IQ141a: wide early recovered with figures) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.45 on 253 bets (periods 1.33 / 1.54); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ141a-wide-early-recovered-with-figures