Hypotheses · overlay · IQ141a-wide-early-recovered-with-figures

IQ141a: wide early recovered with figures

PROMISINGgreenPassed discovery and is being attacked. Most promising ideas die here.

best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.446 on 253 bets

Starts the thread “IQ141a: wide early recovered with figures” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: wide early and recovered, runners whose last run has the figure.

The rule

(race_type = 'Flat' AND last_early_setback = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND l_gained_mid IS NOT NULL

Reads: race_type, last_early_setback, last_recovered, last_raced_wide, last_slow_start, last_position, last_beaten_lengths, l_gained_mid

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: (race_type = 'Flat' AND last_early_setback = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND l_gained_mid IS NOT NULL
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 253
A/E: 1.45; winners vs the prices
SP return: +20.1%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +38.3%; 250 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.50

Strike rate 23.3%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half1071.33

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ141a-wide-early-recovered-with-figures Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.446 on 253 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ141a-wide-early-recovered-with-figures (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ141a-wide-early-recovered-with-figures: IQ141a: wide early recovered with figures (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.