IQ150c: not wide fast

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ150c: not wide fast KILLED red

   because CONTROL: the same near miss WITHOUT racing wide, top speed in the upper half.

   last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4, 0) AND l_top_speed_pct IS NOT NULL AND last_raced_wide = 0 AND l_top_speed_pct >= 0.5

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.01 on 15,643 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.02. info

   Betfair SP return -0.9%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.02. Zone: all. On IQ150c: not wide fast

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half6,8741.00

   Later half8,7691.02

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ150c: not wide fast Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 1.01 on 15643 bets