Hypotheses · wide-top-speed · IQ150c-not-wide-fast
IQ150c: not wide fast
best [broad] RED A/E 1.01 on 15643 bets
Starts the thread “IQ150c: not wide fast” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
CONTROL: the same near miss WITHOUT racing wide, top speed in the upper half.
The rule
last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4, 0) AND l_top_speed_pct IS NOT NULL AND last_raced_wide = 0 AND l_top_speed_pct >= 0.5Reads: last_position, last_beaten_lengths, last_slow_start, last_run_style, last_race_tilt, last_field_size, l_top_speed_pct, last_raced_wide
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4, 0) AND l_top_speed_pct IS NOT NULL AND last_raced_wide = 0 AND l_top_speed_pct >= 0.5
- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 15,643
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -17.9%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -0.9%
- 15,566 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 15.9%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
IQ150c-not-wide-fast Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 1.01 on 15643 bets
· importer
import result for IQ150c-not-wide-fast (broad): info
· importer
New idea IQ150c-not-wide-fast: IQ150c: not wide fast (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.