IQ151c: no error large cost

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ151c: no error large cost PROMISING green

   because B: chase, beaten; no jumping error in the remark, bottom quarter for ground gained. Predicted above the market.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_position > 1 AND last_jumping_error IS NOT NULL AND l_lgj_pct IS NOT NULL AND last_jumping_error = 0 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.14 on 989 bets, by period 1.10 · 1.27. info

   Betfair SP return +26.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.17). Zone: all. On IQ151c: no error large cost

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half7321.10

   Later half2571.27

3. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ151c: no error large cost Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.143 on 989 bets

4. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ151c-no-error-large-cost (IQ151c: no error large cost) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.14 on 989 bets (periods 1.10 / 1.27); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ151c-no-error-large-cost