IQ151c: no error large cost

Mechanism and rationale

B: chase, beaten; no jumping error in the remark, bottom quarter for ground gained. Predicted above the market.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_position > 1 AND last_jumping_error IS NOT NULL AND l_lgj_pct IS NOT NULL AND last_jumping_error = 0 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

Reads: race_type, last_race_type, last_position, last_jumping_error, l_lgj_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_position > 1 AND last_jumping_error IS NOT NULL AND l_lgj_pct IS NOT NULL AND last_jumping_error = 0 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

989

A/E

1.14

winners vs the prices

SP return

-5.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+26.9%

988 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ151c-no-error-large-cost Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.143 on 989 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ151c-no-error-large-cost (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ151c-no-error-large-cost: IQ151c: no error large cost (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.