IQ21: one good jumping day from a poor jumper

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ21: one good jumping day from a poor jumper KILLED red

   because NEGATIVE: its latest run in today's code was in the top quarter for ground gained jumping, when its earlier runs averaged in the worse 40%. A false dawn.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_lgj_pct_last >= 0.75 AND s_lgj_pct_prev <= 0.4

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.00 on 847 bets, by period 0.92 · 1.05. info

   Betfair SP return +8.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.05. Zone: all. On IQ21: one good jumping day from a poor jumper

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2630.92

   Later half5841.05

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ21: one good jumping day from a poor jumper Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 1.005 on 847 bets