Hypotheses · one-off · IQ21-one-good-jumping-day-from-a-poor-jumper
IQ21: one good jumping day from a poor jumper
best [broad] RED A/E 1.005 on 847 bets
Starts the thread “IQ21: one good jumping day from a poor jumper” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: its latest run in today's code was in the top quarter for ground gained jumping, when its earlier runs averaged in the worse 40%. A false dawn.
The rule
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_lgj_pct_last >= 0.75 AND s_lgj_pct_prev <= 0.4Reads: race_type, s_lgj_pct_last, s_lgj_pct_prev
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_lgj_pct_last >= 0.75 AND s_lgj_pct_prev <= 0.4
- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 847
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -13.4%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +8.5%
- 847 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 14.3%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
IQ21-one-good-jumping-day-from-a-poor-jumper Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 1.005 on 847 bets
· importer
import result for IQ21-one-good-jumping-day-from-a-poor-jumper (broad): info
· importer
New idea IQ21-one-good-jumping-day-from-a-poor-jumper: IQ21: one good jumping day from a poor jumper (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.