Threads · remark-v-figures · IQ31-mistake-in-the-remark-that-cost-nothing
IQ31: mistake in the remark that cost nothing
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: best [broad] RED A/E 0.978 on 2823 bets
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ31: mistake in the remark that cost nothing KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: the remark records a jumping error last time, but the horse was in the better half of its field for ground gained jumping, and was beaten. The defeat is forgiven for an error that cost nothing.
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.98 on 2,823 bets, by period 0.98 · 0.98. info
Betfair SP return -8.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ31: mistake in the remark that cost nothing
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half1,9190.98Later half9040.98Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Killed15 Oct, 23:10
IQ31: mistake in the remark that cost nothing Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 0.978 on 2823 bets
Where it started
NEGATIVE: the remark records a jumping error last time, but the horse was in the better half of its field for ground gained jumping, and was beaten. The defeat is forgiven for an error that cost nothing.