IQ31: mistake in the remark that cost nothing

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: the remark records a jumping error last time, but the horse was in the better half of its field for ground gained jumping, and was beaten. The defeat is forgiven for an error that cost nothing.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1

Reads: race_type, last_jumping_error, l_lgj_pct, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

2,823

A/E

0.98

winners vs the prices

SP return

-24.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-8.4%

2,818 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ31-mistake-in-the-remark-that-cost-nothing Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.978 on 2823 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ31-mistake-in-the-remark-that-cost-nothing (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ31-mistake-in-the-remark-that-cost-nothing: IQ31: mistake in the remark that cost nothing (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.