IQ34: lost ground in one place

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ34: lost ground in one place PROMISING green

   because Last run: bottom quarter of the field for ground gained jumping, yet in the better half for the share of its jumps that were good. The ground went at one obstacle; the rest was sound.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND l_positive_jump_pct >= 0.5

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.07 on 479 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.22. info

   Betfair SP return +0.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.21). Zone: all. On IQ34: lost ground in one place

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3331.01

   Later half1461.22

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase today: A/E 0.81 on 170 bets, by period 0.62 · 1.16. info

   Betfair SP return -32.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.62 to 1.16. Zone: all. On IQ34: lost ground in one place

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1130.62

   Later half571.16

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   last run in today's code: A/E 1.14 on 417 bets, by period 1.09 · 1.26. info

   Betfair SP return +9.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.17). Zone: all. On IQ34: lost ground in one place

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2901.09

   Later half1271.26

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.06 on 252 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.17. info

   Betfair SP return +2.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.15). Zone: all. On IQ34: lost ground in one place

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1761.02

   Later half761.17

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ34: lost ground in one place Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [last run in today's code] GREEN A/E 1.14 on 417 bets

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ34-lost-ground-in-one-place (IQ34: lost ground in one place) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.07 on 479 bets (periods 1.01 / 1.22); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ34-lost-ground-in-one-place