IQ34: lost ground in one place

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: bottom quarter of the field for ground gained jumping, yet in the better half for the share of its jumps that were good. The ground went at one obstacle; the rest was sound.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND l_positive_jump_pct >= 0.5

Reads: race_type, l_lgj_pct, l_positive_jump_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND l_positive_jump_pct >= 0.5

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND l_positive_jump_pct >= 0.5) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND l_positive_jump_pct >= 0.5) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND l_positive_jump_pct >= 0.5) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

252

A/E

1.06

winners vs the prices

SP return

-13.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+2.8%

251 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ34-lost-ground-in-one-place Discovery → PROMISING import: best [last run in today's code] GREEN A/E 1.14 on 417 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ34-lost-ground-in-one-place (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ34-lost-ground-in-one-place (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ34-lost-ground-in-one-place (chase today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ34-lost-ground-in-one-place (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea IQ34-lost-ground-in-one-place: IQ34: lost ground in one place (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.