IQ39: finished strongly in the remark but not on the clock

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ39: finished strongly in the remark but not on the clock KILLED red

   because NEGATIVE: the remark says it finished strongly last time, but it was not in the fastest quarter of the finishers over the final third, and it did not win. Everyone was finishing; the remark makes it an eye-catcher.

   race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_strong_finish = 1 AND l_late_pct < 0.75 AND last_position > 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.94 on 2,725 bets, by period 1.02 · 0.87. info

   Betfair SP return -14.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.02. Zone: all. On IQ39: finished strongly in the remark but not on the clock

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1,2591.02

   Later half1,4660.87

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.94 on 1,879 bets, by period 1.03 · 0.89. info

   Betfair SP return -8.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.03. Zone: all. On IQ39: finished strongly in the remark but not on the clock

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half6991.03

   Later half1,1800.89

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.94 on 846 bets, by period 1.01 · 0.80. info

   Betfair SP return -28.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.01. Zone: all. On IQ39: finished strongly in the remark but not on the clock

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5601.01

   Later half2860.80

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   last run in today's code: A/E 0.95 on 2,572 bets, by period 1.02 · 0.90. info

   Betfair SP return -11.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.02. Zone: all. On IQ39: finished strongly in the remark but not on the clock

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1,1711.02

   Later half1,4010.90

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.95 on 1,936 bets, by period 1.04 · 0.88. info

   Betfair SP return -4.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.88 to 1.04. Zone: all. On IQ39: finished strongly in the remark but not on the clock

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half9181.04

   Later half1,0180.88

7. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ39: finished strongly in the remark but not on the clock Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [last run in today's code] RED A/E 0.953 on 2572 bets