IQ39: finished strongly in the remark but not on the clock

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: the remark says it finished strongly last time, but it was not in the fastest quarter of the finishers over the final third, and it did not win. Everyone was finishing; the remark makes it an eye-catcher.

The rule

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_strong_finish = 1 AND l_late_pct < 0.75 AND last_position > 1

Reads: race_type, last_strong_finish, l_late_pct, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_strong_finish = 1 AND l_late_pct < 0.75 AND last_position > 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_strong_finish = 1 AND l_late_pct < 0.75 AND last_position > 1) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_strong_finish = 1 AND l_late_pct < 0.75 AND last_position > 1) AND (race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_strong_finish = 1 AND l_late_pct < 0.75 AND last_position > 1) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_strong_finish = 1 AND l_late_pct < 0.75 AND last_position > 1) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,936

A/E

0.95

winners vs the prices

SP return

-19.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-4.3%

1,932 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ39-finished-strongly-in-the-remark-but-not-on-the-clock Discovery → KILLED import: best [last run in today's code] RED A/E 0.953 on 2572 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ39-finished-strongly-in-the-remark-but-not-on-the-clock (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ39-finished-strongly-in-the-remark-but-not-on-the-clock (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ39-finished-strongly-in-the-remark-but-not-on-the-clock (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ39-finished-strongly-in-the-remark-but-not-on-the-clock (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ39-finished-strongly-in-the-remark-but-not-on-the-clock (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea IQ39-finished-strongly-in-the-remark-but-not-on-the-clock: IQ39: finished strongly in the remark but not on the clock (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.