IQ43: slow start then made up the places

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ43: slow start then made up the places PROMISING negative

   because Last run: a slow start in the remark, then three or more places made up from the end of the first third to the line, beaten five lengths or less. It overcame the start rather than merely had one. (The remarks alone say slow starters that run on are over-bet: 0.88.)

   race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_slow_start = 1 AND l_gained_mid + l_gained_final >= 3 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.86 on 1,174 bets, by period 0.83 · 0.87. info

   Betfair SP return -15.1%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ43: slow start then made up the places

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4680.83

   Later half7060.87

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.86 on 1,156 bets, by period 0.84 · 0.87. info

   Betfair SP return -14.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ43: slow start then made up the places

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4550.84

   Later half7010.87

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.90 on 18 bets. info

   Zone: all. On IQ43: slow start then made up the places

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half13–

   Later half5–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   last run in today's code: A/E 0.85 on 1,160 bets, by period 0.83 · 0.87. info

   Betfair SP return -15.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ43: slow start then made up the places

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4580.83

   Later half7020.87

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.85 on 958 bets, by period 0.80 · 0.89. info

   Betfair SP return -29.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ43: slow start then made up the places

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3870.80

   Later half5710.89

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ43: slow start then made up the places Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [last run in today's code] NEGATIVE A/E 0.853 on 1160 bets