IQ43: slow start then made up the places

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: a slow start in the remark, then three or more places made up from the end of the first third to the line, beaten five lengths or less. It overcame the start rather than merely had one. (The remarks alone say slow starters that run on are over-bet: 0.88.)

The rule

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_slow_start = 1 AND l_gained_mid + l_gained_final >= 3 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5

Reads: race_type, last_slow_start, l_gained_mid, l_gained_final, last_position, last_beaten_lengths

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_slow_start = 1 AND l_gained_mid + l_gained_final >= 3 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_slow_start = 1 AND l_gained_mid + l_gained_final >= 3 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_slow_start = 1 AND l_gained_mid + l_gained_final >= 3 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND (race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_slow_start = 1 AND l_gained_mid + l_gained_final >= 3 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_slow_start = 1 AND l_gained_mid + l_gained_final >= 3 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

958

A/E

0.85

winners vs the prices

SP return

-38.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-29.9%

951 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ43-slow-start-then-made-up-the-places Discovery → PROMISING import: best [last run in today's code] NEGATIVE A/E 0.853 on 1160 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ43-slow-start-then-made-up-the-places (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ43-slow-start-then-made-up-the-places (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ43-slow-start-then-made-up-the-places (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ43-slow-start-then-made-up-the-places (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ43-slow-start-then-made-up-the-places (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea IQ43-slow-start-then-made-up-the-places: IQ43: slow start then made up the places (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.