Threads · jumping-holdout · IQ53-failed-to-finish-jumping-out-of-character
IQ53: failed to finish jumping out of character
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Vault
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 10:10
Where it stands: IQ53-failed-to-finish-jumping-out-of-character (IQ53: failed to finish jumping out of character) was predicted negative but went the other way on the sealed holdout: A/E 1.11 on 1095 bets.
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ53: failed to finish jumping out of character KILLED
because NEGATIVE: failed to finish last time, in today's code, with a Jump Index half a point or more below its own earlier average, from a horse that had averaged in the better half of its fields. A good jumper that jumped badly AND did not finish had something wrong with it.
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev <= -0.5 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.11 on 1,095 bets, by period 1.11. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ53: failed to finish jumping out of character
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago1,0951.11Last year0–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Britain: A/E 1.18 on 846 bets, by period 1.18. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ53: failed to finish jumping out of character
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago8461.18Last year0–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Ireland: A/E 0.83 on 249 bets, by period 0.83. info
Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ53: failed to finish jumping out of character
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago2490.83Last year0–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
discovery year (reference): A/E 0.95 on 761 bets, by period 0.95. info
Betfair SP return -25.3%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ53: failed to finish jumping out of character
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago0–Last year7610.95Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
IQ53: failed to finish jumping out of character Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
IQ53: failed to finish jumping out of character Vault → KILLEDfailed the vaultimport: holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 1.111 on 1095 (GB 1.18, IRE 0.828), p 0.8749 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
IQ53-failed-to-finish-jumping-out-of-character (IQ53: failed to finish jumping out of character) was predicted negative but went the other way on the sealed holdout: A/E 1.11 on 1095 bets.
surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ53-failed-to-finish-jumping-out-of-character
Where it started
NEGATIVE: failed to finish last time, in today's code, with a Jump Index half a point or more below its own earlier average, from a horse that had averaged in the better half of its fields. A good jumper that jumped badly AND did not finish had something wrong with it.