Hypotheses · jumping-holdout · IQ53-failed-to-finish-jumping-out-of-character

IQ53: failed to finish jumping out of character

KILLEDfailed the vaultFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 1.111 on 1095 (GB 1.18, IRE 0.828), p 0.8749 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

Starts the thread “IQ53: failed to finish jumping out of character” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ holdout
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 2

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: failed to finish last time, in today's code, with a Jump Index half a point or more below its own earlier average, from a horse that had averaged in the better half of its fields. A good jumper that jumped badly AND did not finish had something wrong with it.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev <= -0.5 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5

Reads: race_type, last_position, l_same_code, l_jump_index, s_jump_index_prev, s_jump_index_pct_prev

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): 482d771bbb6ef948f8555503781ee0c27c5c654a2b067c7395a9da475ccb5a3c
Frozen: 13 Oct, 01:00; Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Direction: negative
Frozen in: research/experiments/raceiq/iq_holdout
Frozen on: 2026-10-13
Id: IQ53-failed-to-finish-jumping-out-of-character
Rule: race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev <= -0.5 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 761
A/E: 0.95; winners vs the prices
SP return: -39.9%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -25.3%; 761 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 8.1%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-220–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets: 1,095; 14 Oct, 13:00
A/E: 1.11; p = 0.87
BH threshold then: 0.0034; over every vault test so far
Outcome: Failed; from the archive

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ53-failed-to-finish-jumping-out-of-character Vault → KILLEDfailed the vault import: holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 1.111 on 1095 (GB 1.18, IRE 0.828), p 0.8749 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ53-failed-to-finish-jumping-out-of-character Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ53-failed-to-finish-jumping-out-of-character Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ53-failed-to-finish-jumping-out-of-character (discovery year (reference)): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ53-failed-to-finish-jumping-out-of-character (Ireland): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ53-failed-to-finish-jumping-out-of-character (Britain): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ53-failed-to-finish-jumping-out-of-character (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ53-failed-to-finish-jumping-out-of-character: IQ53: failed to finish jumping out of character (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Failed the vault.