Threads · pulled-up-overlay · IQ63b-pulled-up-out-of-character-jumping-all prices
IQ63b: pulled up out of character jumping all prices
- Hypotheses
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- 16 Oct, 10:10
Where it stands: IQ63b-pulled-up-out-of-character-jumping-all prices (IQ63b: pulled up out of character jumping all prices) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.56 on 115 bets (periods 0.32 / 1.16).
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ63b: pulled up out of character jumping all prices KILLED red
because [all prices] Jump Index half a point or more below the horse's own earlier average in this code, from a horse that had averaged in the better half of its fields. A good jumper having a bad day: the cleanest reason to forgive.
last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev <= -0.5 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.56 on 115 bets, by period 0.32 · 1.16. info
Betfair SP return -35.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.32 to 1.16. Zone: all. On
Where it started
[all prices] Jump Index half a point or more below the horse's own earlier average in this code, from a horse that had averaged in the better half of its fields. A good jumper having a bad day: the cleanest reason to forgive.