IQ63b: pulled up out of character jumping all prices

Mechanism and rationale

[all prices] Jump Index half a point or more below the horse's own earlier average in this code, from a horse that had averaged in the better half of its fields. A good jumper having a bad day: the cleanest reason to forgive.

The rule

last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev <= -0.5 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5

Reads: last_pulled_up, last_run_style, l_same_code, s_jump_index_prev, l_jump_index, s_jump_index_pct_prev

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev <= -0.5 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

115

A/E

0.56

winners vs the prices

SP return

-46.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-35.5%

115 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 4.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ63b-pulled-up-out-of-character-jumping-all prices Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.561 on 115 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ63b-pulled-up-out-of-character-jumping-all prices (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ63b-pulled-up-out-of-character-jumping-all prices: IQ63b: pulled up out of character jumping all prices (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.