IQ65a: pulled up poor jumper anyway system, 14 1 or shorter

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ65a: pulled up poor jumper anyway system, 14 1 or shorter KILLED amber

   because [system, 14-1 or shorter] NEGATIVE: the horse's earlier runs in this code averaged in the worse 40% of its fields on Jump Index. A pulled-up run from a horse that jumps badly as a rule.

   last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.96 on 77 bets, by period 2.05. info

   Betfair SP return +87.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ65a: pulled up poor jumper anyway system, 14 1 or shorter

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half452.05

   Later half32–

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ65a: pulled up poor jumper anyway system, 14 1 or shorter Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.957 on 77 bets