Hypotheses · pulled-up-overlay · IQ65a-pulled-up-poor-jumper-anyway-system, 14-1 or shorter

IQ65a: pulled up poor jumper anyway system, 14 1 or shorter

KILLEDamberFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.957 on 77 bets

Starts the thread “IQ65a: pulled up poor jumper anyway system, 14 1 or shorter” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

[system, 14-1 or shorter] NEGATIVE: the horse's earlier runs in this code averaged in the worse 40% of its fields on Jump Index. A pulled-up run from a horse that jumps badly as a rule.

The rule

last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4

Reads: last_pulled_up, last_run_style, sp_decimal, l_same_code, s_jump_index_prev, s_jump_index_pct_prev

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 77
A/E: 1.96; winners vs the prices
SP return: +53.6%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +87.7%; 77 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded2.01

Strike rate 23.4%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half452.05

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ65a-pulled-up-poor-jumper-anyway-system, 14-1 or shorter Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.957 on 77 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ65a-pulled-up-poor-jumper-anyway-system, 14-1 or shorter (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ65a-pulled-up-poor-jumper-anyway-system, 14-1 or shorter: IQ65a: pulled up poor jumper anyway system, 14 1 or shorter (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.