IQ65b: pulled up poor jumper anyway all prices

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ65b: pulled up poor jumper anyway all prices PROMISING green

   because [all prices] NEGATIVE: the horse's earlier runs in this code averaged in the worse 40% of its fields on Jump Index. A pulled-up run from a horse that jumps badly as a rule.

   last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.80 on 207 bets, by period 1.88 · 1.67. info

   Betfair SP return +37.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.21). Zone: all. On IQ65b: pulled up poor jumper anyway all prices

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1251.88

   Later half821.67

3. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ65b: pulled up poor jumper anyway all prices Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.801 on 207 bets

4. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ65b-pulled-up-poor-jumper-anyway-all prices (IQ65b: pulled up poor jumper anyway all prices) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.80 on 207 bets (periods 1.88 / 1.67); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ65b-pulled-up-poor-jumper-anyway-all prices