Hypotheses · pulled-up-overlay · IQ65b-pulled-up-poor-jumper-anyway-all prices

IQ65b: pulled up poor jumper anyway all prices

PROMISINGgreenPassed discovery and is being attacked. Most promising ideas die here.

best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.801 on 207 bets

Starts the thread “IQ65b: pulled up poor jumper anyway all prices” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

[all prices] NEGATIVE: the horse's earlier runs in this code averaged in the worse 40% of its fields on Jump Index. A pulled-up run from a horse that jumps badly as a rule.

The rule

last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4

Reads: last_pulled_up, last_run_style, l_same_code, s_jump_index_prev, s_jump_index_pct_prev

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 207
A/E: 1.80; winners vs the prices
SP return: -1.3%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +37.9%; 207 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.85

Strike rate 10.1%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half1251.88

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ65b-pulled-up-poor-jumper-anyway-all prices Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.801 on 207 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ65b-pulled-up-poor-jumper-anyway-all prices (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ65b-pulled-up-poor-jumper-anyway-all prices: IQ65b: pulled up poor jumper anyway all prices (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.