IQ92: headed and came back

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ92: headed and came back PROMISING negative

   because Jumps: in an earlier jumps run it was headed and got back in front or fought back. The strictest reading: passed, and not beaten by it.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_rally_n >= 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.84 on 404 bets, by period 0.83 · 0.86. info

   Betfair SP return -31.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ92: headed and came back

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2560.83

   Later half1480.86

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   likely to be taken on today: A/E 0.90 on 230 bets, by period 0.88 · 0.94. info

   Betfair SP return -43.5%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ92: headed and came back

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1420.88

   Later half880.94

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase: A/E 0.79 on 187 bets, by period 0.80 · 0.75. info

   Betfair SP return -42.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ92: headed and came back

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1310.80

   Later half560.75

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   stiff finish: A/E 0.76 on 107 bets, by period 0.99 · 0.23. info

   Betfair SP return -57.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ92: headed and came back

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half670.99

   Later half400.23

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.85 on 334 bets, by period 0.85 · 0.84. info

   Betfair SP return -28.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ92: headed and came back

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2110.85

   Later half1230.84

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ92: headed and came back Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.837 on 404 bets