IQ92: headed and came back

Mechanism and rationale

Jumps: in an earlier jumps run it was headed and got back in front or fought back. The strictest reading: passed, and not beaten by it.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_rally_n >= 1

Reads: race_type, t_rally_n

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_rally_n >= 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "likely to be taken on today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_rally_n >= 1) AND (last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND n_front_last >= 3)"
  },
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_rally_n >= 1) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "stiff finish",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_rally_n >= 1) AND (track_stiff_finish = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_rally_n >= 1) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

334

A/E

0.85

winners vs the prices

SP return

-36.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-28.9%

333 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ92-headed-and-came-back Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.837 on 404 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ92-headed-and-came-back (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ92-headed-and-came-back (stiff finish): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ92-headed-and-came-back (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ92-headed-and-came-back (likely to be taken on today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ92-headed-and-came-back (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea IQ92-headed-and-came-back: IQ92: headed and came back (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.