S8: hurdle completed large positive

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   S8: hurdle completed large positive KILLED

   because Shock test S8-hurdle-completed-large-positive (shock.py, frozen before the holdout was fetched)

   code = 'Hurdle' AND finished = 1 AND s >= 1.5

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 0.86 on 408 bets, by period 0.86. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On S8: hurdle completed large positive

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago4080.86

   Last year0–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 0.92 on 289 bets, by period 0.92. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On S8: hurdle completed large positive

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago2890.92

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 0.66 on 119 bets, by period 0.66. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On S8: hurdle completed large positive

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1190.66

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 1.04 on 335 bets, by period 1.04. info

   Betfair SP return +20.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On S8: hurdle completed large positive

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year3351.04

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   S8: hurdle completed large positive Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

7. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   S8: hurdle completed large positive Vault → KILLEDfailed the vaultimport: holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.86 on 408 (GB 0.922, IRE 0.655), p 0.8751 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

8. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   S8-hurdle-completed-large-positive (S8: hurdle completed large positive) was predicted positive but went the other way on the sealed holdout: A/E 0.86 on 408 bets.

   surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom S8-hurdle-completed-large-positive