Hypotheses · shock · S8-hurdle-completed-large-positive
S8: hurdle completed large positive
holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.86 on 408 (GB 0.922, IRE 0.655), p 0.8751 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
Starts the thread “S8: hurdle completed large positive” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ holdout
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 2
Mechanism and rationale
Shock test S8-hurdle-completed-large-positive (shock.py, frozen before the holdout was fetched)
The rule
code = 'Hurdle' AND finished = 1 AND s >= 1.5
Reads: code, finished, s
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- 4831c691d718d460b1a859b5142e208182510ae0c21da55a6cbdf160da450c9e
- Frozen
- 14 Oct, 01:00
- Nothing in the definition can change after this.
- Direction
positive
- Frozen in
research/experiments/raceiq/shock_tests
- Frozen on
2026-10-14
- Id
S8-hurdle-completed-large-positive
- Rule
code = 'Hurdle' AND finished = 1 AND s >= 1.5
Result (from the archive)
info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 335
- A/E
- 1.04
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -12.0%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +20.6%
- 334 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 14.3%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
- Bets
- 408
- 14 Oct, 13:00
- A/E
- 0.86
- p = 0.88
- BH threshold then
- 0.0034
- over every vault test so far
- Outcome
- Failed
- from the archive
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
S8-hurdle-completed-large-positive Vault → KILLEDfailed the vault import: holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.86 on 408 (GB 0.922, IRE 0.655), p 0.8751 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
· importer
S8-hurdle-completed-large-positive Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
· importer
S8-hurdle-completed-large-positive Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
· importer
import result for S8-hurdle-completed-large-positive (discovery year (reference)): info
· importer
import result for S8-hurdle-completed-large-positive (Ireland): info
· importer
import result for S8-hurdle-completed-large-positive (Britain): info
· importer
import result for S8-hurdle-completed-large-positive (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
· importer
New idea S8-hurdle-completed-large-positive: S8: hurdle completed large positive (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Failed the vault.