Threads · published · SYS-handicap-debut-yard-in-form
System: Handicap debut from a yard that plans them
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- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: published system (live from 2026-10-13)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
System: Handicap debut from a yard that plans them LIVE
because Some yards place a horse to win first time in a handicap, and their record with handicap debutants carries forward. It carries best when the yard's runners are also winning now.
is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND last_race_type IS NOT NULL AND yard_handicap_debut_runs >= 20 AND yard_handicap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * yard_handicap_debut_expected AND yard_30_runs >= 10 AND yard_30_wins >= yard_30_expected AND sp_decimal < 7.5
made by import
Where it started
Some yards place a horse to win first time in a handicap, and their record with handicap debutants carries forward. It carries best when the yard's runners are also winning now.