System: Handicap debut from a yard that plans them

Mechanism and rationale

Some yards place a horse to win first time in a handicap, and their record with handicap debutants carries forward. It carries best when the yard's runners are also winning now.

The rule

is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND last_race_type IS NOT NULL AND yard_handicap_debut_runs >= 20 AND yard_handicap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * yard_handicap_debut_expected AND yard_30_runs >= 10 AND yard_30_wins >= yard_30_expected AND sp_decimal < 7.5

Reads: is_handicap, prior_handicap_runs, last_race_type, yard_handicap_debut_runs, yard_handicap_debut_wins, yard_handicap_debut_expected, yard_30_runs, yard_30_wins, yard_30_expected, sp_decimal

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Backing

price-sensitive

Kind

system

Live from

2026-10-13

Matched

none

Published

true

Rules

• The horse runs in a handicap for the first time, having run before.
• The yard's earlier handicap debutants (at least 20) won 30% more often than their prices implied.
• Over the last 30 days the yard has had at least 10 runners and at least as many winners as their prices implied.
• The horse starts at shorter than 13/2.

Source

Yard patterns, October 2026

System id

handicap-debut-yard-in-form

Tier

none

Where

is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND last_race_type IS NOT NULL AND yard_handicap_debut_runs >= 20 AND yard_handicap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * yard_handicap_debut_expected AND yard_30_runs >= 10 AND yard_30_wins >= yard_30_expected AND sp_decimal < 7.5

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. hypothesis note SYS-handicap-debut-yard-in-form

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. New idea SYS-handicap-debut-yard-in-form: System: Handicap debut from a yard that plans them (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Live.