SYS0: failed to finish 14 1 or shorter

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   SYS0: failed to finish 14 1 or shorter KILLED

   because PARENT: failed to finish last time in today's code, 14/1 or shorter today.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND sp_decimal <= 15

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.05 on 3,881 bets, by period 1.05. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS0: failed to finish 14 1 or shorter

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago3,8811.05

   Last year0–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 1.06 on 3,093 bets, by period 1.06. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS0: failed to finish 14 1 or shorter

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago3,0931.06

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 1.01 on 788 bets, by period 1.01. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS0: failed to finish 14 1 or shorter

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago7881.01

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 1.05 on 1,873 bets, by period 1.05. info

   Betfair SP return +4.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS0: failed to finish 14 1 or shorter

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year1,8731.05

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   SYS0: failed to finish 14 1 or shorter Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

7. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   SYS0: failed to finish 14 1 or shorter Vault → KILLEDfailed the vaultimport: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 1.05 on 3881 (GB 1.059, IRE 1.013), p 0.1344 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests