Hypotheses · control · SYS0-failed-to-finish-14-1-or-shorter

SYS0: failed to finish 14 1 or shorter

KILLEDfailed the vaultFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 1.05 on 3881 (GB 1.059, IRE 1.013), p 0.1344 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

Starts the thread “SYS0: failed to finish 14 1 or shorter” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ holdout
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 2

Mechanism and rationale

PARENT: failed to finish last time in today's code, 14/1 or shorter today.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND sp_decimal <= 15

Reads: race_type, last_position, l_same_code, sp_decimal

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): f29d9b4450909369f61890ab6370331ef75a4403a722c389545a938bf8ce03a1
Frozen: 14 Oct, 01:00; Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Direction: positive
Frozen in: research/experiments/raceiq/holdout_systems
Frozen on: 2026-10-14
Id: SYS0-failed-to-finish-14-1-or-shorter
Rule: race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND sp_decimal <= 15

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 1,873
A/E: 1.05; winners vs the prices
SP return: -13.5%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +4.4%; 1,872 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 14.4%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-220–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets: 3,881; 14 Oct, 13:00
A/E: 1.05; p = 0.13
BH threshold then: 0.0034; over every vault test so far
Outcome: Failed; from the archive

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

SYS0-failed-to-finish-14-1-or-shorter Vault → KILLEDfailed the vault import: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 1.05 on 3881 (GB 1.059, IRE 1.013), p 0.1344 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
SYS0-failed-to-finish-14-1-or-shorter Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
SYS0-failed-to-finish-14-1-or-shorter Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for SYS0-failed-to-finish-14-1-or-shorter (discovery year (reference)): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for SYS0-failed-to-finish-14-1-or-shorter (Ireland): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for SYS0-failed-to-finish-14-1-or-shorter (Britain): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for SYS0-failed-to-finish-14-1-or-shorter (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea SYS0-failed-to-finish-14-1-or-shorter: SYS0: failed to finish 14 1 or shorter (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Failed the vault.