TD2: durrell harry elsewhere

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   TD2: durrell harry elsewhere PROMISING green

   because Durrell on Dan while Harry rides at another meeting that day. Predicted above the market.

   trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND jockey = 'Tristan Durrell' AND NOT EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM v b WHERE b.race_id = v.race_id AND b.jockey = 'Harry Skelton') AND EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM v b WHERE b.race_date = v.race_date AND b.jockey = 'Harry Skelton')

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.23 on 370 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.54. info

   Betfair SP return +31.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.53). Zone: all. On TD2: durrell harry elsewhere

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2231–

   2023 to a year ago1851.01

   Last year1541.54

3. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   TD2: durrell harry elsewhere Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.233 on 370 bets

4. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   TD2-durrell-harry-elsewhere (TD2: durrell harry elsewhere) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.23 on 370 bets (periods 1.01 / 1.54); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom TD2-durrell-harry-elsewhere