Hypotheses · dan-second-jockey · TD2-durrell-harry-elsewhere

TD2: durrell harry elsewhere

PROMISINGgreenPassed discovery and is being attacked. Most promising ideas die here.

best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.233 on 370 bets

Starts the thread “TD2: durrell harry elsewhere” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Durrell on Dan while Harry rides at another meeting that day. Predicted above the market.

The rule

trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND jockey = 'Tristan Durrell' AND NOT EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM v b WHERE b.race_id = v.race_id AND b.jockey = 'Harry Skelton') AND EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM v b WHERE b.race_date = v.race_date AND b.jockey = 'Harry Skelton')

Reads: trainer, race_type, jockey, exists, select, from, v, b, where

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND jockey = 'Tristan Durrell' AND NOT EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM v b WHERE b.race_id = v.race_id AND b.jockey = 'Harry Skelton') AND EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM v b WHERE b.race_date = v.race_date AND b.jockey = 'Harry Skelton')
Kind: history
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 370
A/E: 1.23; winners vs the prices
SP return: +1.2%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +31.1%; 154 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.28

Strike rate 15.1%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-2231–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

TD2-durrell-harry-elsewhere Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.233 on 370 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for TD2-durrell-harry-elsewhere (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea TD2-durrell-harry-elsewhere: TD2: durrell harry elsewhere (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.