VET6: old heavy defeat engine intact

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   VET6: old heavy defeat engine intact KILLED amber

   because Aged 10+, beaten 15L+ in a chase, top speed and Jump Index no worse than its norm. Predicted above the market.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 15 AND s_top_speed_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_top_speed_rel_last >= s_top_speed_rel_prev AND s_jump_index_rel_last >= s_jump_index_rel_prev

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.13 on 55 bets. info

   Betfair SP return -34.0%. Zone: all. On VET6: old heavy defeat engine intact

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half38–

   Later half17–

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   VET6: old heavy defeat engine intact Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.133 on 55 bets