Hypotheses · old-engine · VET6-old-heavy-defeat-engine-intact

VET6: old heavy defeat engine intact

KILLEDamberFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.133 on 55 bets

Starts the thread “VET6: old heavy defeat engine intact” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Aged 10+, beaten 15L+ in a chase, top speed and Jump Index no worse than its norm. Predicted above the market.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 15 AND s_top_speed_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_top_speed_rel_last >= s_top_speed_rel_prev AND s_jump_index_rel_last >= s_jump_index_rel_prev

Reads: race_type, age, last_race_type, l_same_code, last_position, last_beaten_lengths, s_top_speed_rel_prev, s_jump_index_rel_prev, s_top_speed_rel_last, s_jump_index_rel_last

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 15 AND s_top_speed_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_top_speed_rel_last >= s_top_speed_rel_prev AND s_jump_index_rel_last >= s_jump_index_rel_prev
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 55
A/E: 1.13; winners vs the prices
SP return: -37.7%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -34.0%; 55 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 9.1%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half38–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

VET6-old-heavy-defeat-engine-intact Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.133 on 55 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for VET6-old-heavy-defeat-engine-intact (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea VET6-old-heavy-defeat-engine-intact: VET6: old heavy defeat engine intact (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.