Two-year-old beaten favourites, favourite again

The rules

1. The horse is a two-year-old running on the flat.
2. It started favourite last time and was beaten.
3. It starts favourite, or joint favourite, again today.
4. It has not changed trainer since.

This rule depends on the starting price, which is only settled at the off. The record is exact, but following it live means acting on the betting just before the race.

Record, 2020-07-15 to 2026-10-12

Following this blindly lost 0.4p of every £1 staked.

Bets

1,226

544 winners

Strike rate

44.4%

average SP 1.5/1

Profit / loss

-5.2 pts

level stakes to SP

Return on stakes

-0.4%

per 100 staked

Longest losing run

12

bets in a row

Deepest drawdown

68 pts

peak to trough

Winners vs market

1.16

470 expected from the prices

Running profit

Last 12 months

Bets

187

93 winners

Strike rate

49.7%

average SP 1.3/1

Profit / loss

+9.6 pts

level stakes to SP

Return on stakes

5.1%

per 100 staked

The same 187 selections at Betfair SP, after 2% commission: +26.4 pts, 14.1% return on stakes.

Warning signs

• ⚑ Eye-catcher last time 1.00 v market with it (29 bets), 1.25 without.

Too few selections to judge: slow start last time, repeat jumping errors, hard front-end race on soft ground, failed comeback after a year off, repeat slow starts. Last 12 months only.

By year

By race type

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