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Systems · In-running remarks analysis, October 2026
A horse forced wide covers extra ground; if it still finished close up, the bare result undersells it. Unlike the obvious hard-luck stories, the market does not seem to price this in. Remarks only go back twelve months, so the record is short.
Following this blindly made 10.4p on every £1 staked. A method that only breaks even would show a profit this good about 17 times in 100, so this could well be luck.
The same 1,285 selections at Betfair SP, after 2% commission: +532.1 pts, 41.4% return on stakes.
No drag from: eye-catcher last time. Too few selections to judge: repeat jumping errors, hard front-end race on soft ground, failed comeback after a year off, repeat slow starts. Last 12 months only.
Warning signs known before the race, measured on this system's own selections: one that hurts one system can be harmless, or part of the edge, in another. “v market” is winners against what the prices implied. A signal is listed above when selections carrying it scored at least 0.1 lower on 25 or more bets.
No negative1,158 bets · 18.7% won · 1.26 v market · 14.6% at SP · 47.2% at Betfair SP
Flagged130 bets · 13.8% won · 0.92 v market · -26.6% at SP · -10.4% at Betfair SP
Slow start last time
Missed the break on its last run. The market treats it as bad luck; it is more often a habit.
With it106 bets · 12.3% won · 0.82 v market · -29.4% at SP · -12.5% at Betfair SP
Without1,182 bets · 18.7% won · 1.26 v market · 14.0% at SP · 46.3% at Betfair SP
Repeat jumping errors
A jumping mistake noted in two or more of its last three runs. One mistake is forgivable; a horse that keeps making them is overbet.
With it11 bets · 18.2% won · 1.08 v market · -51.2% at SP · -43.0% at Betfair SP
Without1,277 bets · 18.2% won · 1.23 v market · 10.9% at SP · 42.1% at Betfair SP
Hard front-end race on soft ground
Raced on the front end on soft or heavy ground last time, was ridden and then headed or weakened. A hard race that seems to leave a mark.
With it14 bets · 21.4% won · 1.56 v market · 8.9% at SP · 25.3% at Betfair SP
Without1,274 bets · 18.1% won · 1.22 v market · 10.4% at SP · 41.6% at Betfair SP
Failed comeback after a year off
Failed to finish last time on its first run for a year or more.
With itno selections
Without1,288 bets · 18.2% won · 1.23 v market · 10.4% at SP · 41.4% at Betfair SP
Repeat slow startscontextual
Missed the break in two or more of its last three runs.
With it23 bets · 8.7% won · 0.58 v market · -67.0% at SP · -58.7% at Betfair SP
Without1,265 bets · 18.3% won · 1.24 v market · 11.8% at SP · 43.2% at Betfair SP
Eye-catcher last timecontextual
Beaten last time with a visible excuse: finished strongly, travelled well, or met trouble and finished close up. Everyone saw it, so the price already allows for it.
With it291 bets · 19.6% won · 1.27 v market · -5.2% at SP · 13.5% at Betfair SP
Without997 bets · 17.8% won · 1.21 v market · 15.0% at SP · 49.5% at Betfair SP
| 2025 | 244 | 17.6% | -24.45 | -10.0% |
| 2026 | 1,044 | 18.3% | +158.34 | 15.2% |
| Bumper | 17 | 11.8% | -9.56 | -56.2% |
| Chase | 31 | 19.4% | -4.75 | -15.3% |
| Flat | 1,119 | 18.0% | +154.65 | 13.8% |
| Hurdle | 121 | 20.7% | -6.45 | -5.3% |