Hypotheses · class · H04-down-in-class
H04: down in class
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.012 on 102460 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H04: down in class” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Dropped in class after being beaten: the easier race is the plan.
The rule
race_class > last_race_class AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)
Reads: race_class, last_race_class, last_position
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_class > last_race_class AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 102,460
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -20.6%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +3.0%
- 15,647 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 12.0%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H04-down-in-class Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.012 on 102460 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H04-down-in-class (broad): info
· importer
New idea H04-down-in-class: H04: down in class (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.