H117: badly hampered

Mechanism and rationale

Badly hampered last time (the remark says badly, severely or heavily).

The rule

lt_badly_hampered = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

Reads: lt_badly_hampered, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

lt_badly_hampered = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

88

A/E

1.37

winners vs the prices

SP return

-21.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+3.2%

88 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H117-badly-hampered Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.367 on 88 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H117-badly-hampered (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H117-badly-hampered: H117: badly hampered (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.