H173: veterans in handicap chases

Mechanism and rationale

Eleven-year-olds and older in handicap chases: they jump, they stay, their marks have slipped, and the market marks them down again for the number beside their name.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age >= 11

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, age

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age >= 11

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

5,854

A/E

1.01

winners vs the prices

SP return

-21.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-1.7%

725 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 7.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H173-veterans-in-handicap-chases Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.01 on 5854 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H173-veterans-in-handicap-chases (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H173-veterans-in-handicap-chases: H173: veterans in handicap chases (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.